The concept of self-driving cars dates back centuries, with Leonardo da Vinci sketching a design for an automated vehicle in 1478. Modern developments did not begin until the 20th century. At the 1939 New York World’s Fair, General Motors showcased a model of a self-driving car guided by magnetized spikes embedded in the road. GM built a functional version in 1958. In the 1960s, Ohio State University and the UK’s Transport and Road Research Laboratory experimented with driverless cars controlled by embedded electronics and magnetic cables.
In 1977, Japan’s Tsukuba Mechanical Engineering Laboratory introduced an autonomous car equipped with cameras and analog computers to process road images. This vehicle could reach speeds of up to 20 mph. The 1980s marked a significant leap with Carnegie Mellon University’s Navlab (Navigation Laboratory) and ALV (Autonomous Land Vehicle) projects were pioneering efforts in the development of self-driving vehicles. The Navlab and ALV projects used sensors and computer vision for autonomous navigation. Mercedes-Benz also contributed by testing self-driving technology during this era. The first coast-to-coast autonomous drive occurred in 1995 when Carnegie Mellon’s Navlab5 steered itself from Pittsburgh to San Diego using cameras and sensors over 2,000 miles. By the early 2000s, adaptive cruise control systems laid the groundwork for modern autonomous features.
A major leap ahead happened in 2009 when Google launched Waymo, its self-driving car project. Waymo was spun off as a separate company under Alphabet Inc. in 2016. Waymo traces its roots to the Stanford Racing Team, which competed in the Defense Department’s Grand Challenges. Waymo has become leading autonomous vehicle technology company.
Waymo now offers commercial robotaxi services in Phoenix, San Francisco, and Los Angeles and, as of October 2024, had provided approximately 150,000 paid rides per week. Waymo vehicles have driven over 22 million autonomous miles. The company is planning to test autonomous vehicles in 10 new cities in 2025 and aims to operate in 75% of U.S. cities with populations over 750,000 by 2026. Waymo calls its technology Waymo Driver, an autonomous driving system for various vehicle types using custom sensors including lidar, radar, and high-resolution cameras. The company claims to focus on improving generalizability to adapt to new environments quickly.
Waymo reported 84% fewer crashes with airbag deployment compared to human drivers. It also claimed 73% fewer injury-causing crashes and 48% fewer police-reported crashes. Waymo’s rapid expansion and improving technology suggest 2025 could be a pivotal year for autonomous vehicle adoption, with the company at the forefront of this transportation revolution.
While Waymo appears to be ahead, Tesla is moving fast as a contender. Tesla Motors was founded in 2003 by Martin Eberhard and Marc Tarpenning. Elon Musk joined as chairman in 2004, investing $30 million. The obvious question is where did he get the $30 million. The answer calls for a partial history of Elon Musk. In 1999, at age 28, Musk founded X.com, an online banking service. In March 2000, X.com merged with Confinity, a company specializing in online transactions. The merged company was initially called X.com, with Musk as CEO. Musk pushed for the name “X-PayPal” for the payment product, showing his attachment to the “X” brand (I drive a Tesla Model X). In September 2000, while Musk was on his honeymoon, X.com executives replaced him as CEO. He stayed on as an advisor and investor. In 2001, the company officially rebranded from X.com to PayPal. Under Musk’s early leadership, PayPal focused on peer-to-peer payments which became popular among eBay users. In 2002, eBay acquired PayPal for $1.5 billion. Musk made $250 million from the sale, which he used to fund future ventures like SpaceX and Tesla.
Tesla unveiled its first car, the Roadster, in 2006 and began production in 2008. The Model S sedan followed in 2012, marking Tesla’s entry into mass-market EVs. Tesla introduced Autopilot in 2015, a semi-autonomous driving system which laid the foundation for its self-driving ambitions. Tesla became a global leader in EVs, but in 2024 and early 2025 the company has experience major declines in most markets.
In 2014, when Tesla introduced Autopilot, the technology offered basic features like lane departure warning and speed limit warnings. In 2016, Tesla transitioned to Autopilot 2.0, featuring new sensors and custom hardware. The company introduced the concept of “Full Self-Driving” (FSD) and began pre-orders for future autonomous capabilities.
Tesla has continuously improved its FSD technology, with regular software updates enhancing capabilities. By November 2023, Tesla vehicles with FSD were actively driving approximately 1 million miles per day. As of March 2025, Tesla’s FSD is still considered a Level 2 autonomy system, requiring driver supervision. The company has faced scrutiny from regulators, including an NHTSA investigation into 2.6 million Tesla vehicles.
Tesla aims to launch an unsupervised self-driving ride-hailing service in Austin, Texas, in June 2025. The company plans to use Model Y and Model 3 vehicles for this service until the launch of its Cybercab in 2027. Tesla is working on expanding FSD capabilities to Europe and China, pending regulatory approval.
Tesla’s approach to self-driving relies heavily on AI neural networks and visible light cameras, eschewing lidar technology, which Waymo and others have embraced. The company has developed its own self-driving computer chip and neural network training supercomputer. Despite numerous missed deadlines and overly optimistic predictions from CEO Elon Musk over the years, Tesla continues to push forward with its self-driving technology development. The company’s immediate focus appears to be on launching the geo-fenced, teleoperation-supported ride-hailing service in Austin, similar to competitors like Waymo.
Self-driving cars represent decades of technological evolution, blending advancements in robotics, AI, and vehicle design to redefine transportation. They are not exclusively electric, but many companies developing autonomous vehicles, such as Waymo and Tesla, favor electric platforms due to their environmental benefits and compatibility with advanced technologies. While electric vehicles dominate the autonomous sector, hybrid or gasoline-powered self-driving cars are technically possible but less common.
Next week, I will write about the five levels of autonomous vehicles.
Read more about technology at johnpatrick.com.
In this section, I share what I am up to, pictures of the week, what is new in AI and crypto, and more.
My annual Tech Talk this year (#14) will be at 10am on March 27 in the Oceanview Ballroom at Hammock Dunes Club in Palm Coast. I will be talking about the latest with AI and Bitcoin. If you are in the area but not a member of the Club, let me know and I will be glad to add you to my guest list.
I will be speaking at the Senior Spectacular Expo in Ridgefield, CT on Saturday, April 26.
Heritage Hills in Somers, NY has invited me back for another talk on AI and Bitcoin. It will be on June 10.
This week’s C[I] Forecast featured speaker was Erik Brynjolfsson, Jerry Yang and Akiko Yamazaki Professor and Senior Fellow at the Stanford Institute for Human-Centered AI (HAI), and Director of the Stanford Digital Economy Lab. It was a great webinar with 140 attendees via Zoom. Erik talked about how AI-driven augmentation, not just automation, can reshape industries, drive new business models, and create a more inclusive economy. I learned a lot.
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www.ciforecast.com
Collective[i]
450 Park Ave South
New York, NY 10016
It was a good course. I learned some things I did not know.
Dr. Paul Wright, SVP, System Chair, Neuroscience Institute, The John and Joanne Patrick Endowed Chair For Advanced Technology in Neuroscience, said, “Very important article. This is a vital step for preventing many diseases such as MI, kidney failure, CVA, dementia etc. if we could implement a passive monitoring program, millions of lives and dollars would be saved.”
Local whale watchers readily identified the mother as Platypus, #3420. She had not been seen since January 8 off Cumberland Island, when she was spotted without a calf. Now they know she was pregnant at the time. The sighting of this new calf brought the season’s calf count to 10! Platypus is 21 years old, and this is her second calf.
Source: Sara Ellis, Ph.D., Senior Researcher, Marineland Right Whale Project
Joanne’s latest horticulture birth
Joanne’s latest artwork
The following post was made by David @ MacSparky. I consider David Sparks to be the thought leader on all things Apple.
This week, Apple unveiled a bunch of new hardware, including the M4 Mac Studio, M4 MacBook Air, and the latest iPad Air. There’s a lot to discuss:
Apple’s new Mac Studio has two primary configurations: one with the M4 Max chip and another with the M3 Ultra chip. The M4 Max variant boasts a 16-core CPU and up to 40 GPU cores, delivering substantial performance enhancements over its predecessors. Notably, this model introduces Apple’s latest-generation graphics architecture to the Mac Studio lineup. The base memory has been increased to 36GB, up from the previous 32GB, with options to configure up to 128GB.
The oddball is the M3 Ultra Mac Studio. Because the Ultra (Apple’s top-tier chip) has a longer development cycle, this one is based on M3, not M4. Regardless, it’s a beast. The M3 Ultra configuration offers a 32-core CPU and up to 80 GPU cores. This model starts with 96GB of unified memory, configurable up to a staggering 512GB, making it ideal for tasks such as large-scale AI model training and complex video rendering. This is not a computer for mere mortals.
Both configurations feature Thunderbolt 5 ports. The M4 Max model starts at $1,999, while the M3 Ultra variant begins at $3,999; but you can configure one up to a price north of $14,000. 🙃
Pre-orders are now open, with shipping starting on March 12.
The MacBook Air lineup has been refreshed with the introduction of M4-powered models, available in both 13-inch and 15-inch screen sizes. This upgrade brings some nice performance improvements, including a 12MP webcam with Center Stage support, enhancing the video conferencing experience. If you’ve wanted a blue Mac, this one’s for you with the new Sky Blue color option. The 13-inch model starts at $999, and the 15-inch model at $1,199. Both models are available for pre-order, with shipping set to begin on March 12.
With this release, I feel Apple has really found its groove for the MacBook Air in the age of Apple silicon. This is a really nice Mac and will be my default recommendation for almost everyone.
Apple has also updated iPad Air, which is now equipped with the M3 chip. This iteration supports advanced accessories, including the new Magic Keyboard and Apple Pencil Pro, further expanding its versatility. The iPad Air starts at $599 for the 11-inch version and $799 for the 13-inch model. Pre-orders are currently open, with availability beginning on March 12. Again, this becomes my default iPad recommendation as it’s a powerful iPad with a great price.
So Apple had a pretty good week and we’ve got some impressive new hardware to consider. Now if only they could get their act together on Siri…But that’s a discussion for another day.
Several significant developments in AI have occurred this week:
Google launched two new AI models tailored for robotics applications, based on its Gemini 2.0 model. These models, Gemini Robotics and Gemini Robotics-ER, are designed to cater to the rapidly growing robotics industry. They offer advanced vision-language-action capabilities and deeper environmental understanding for various robotic forms, including humanoids and industrial robots[3].
AI’s Economic Impact on Ireland
A report by Microsoft and Trinity College Dublin reveals that AI is expected to add €250 billion to Ireland’s economy by 2035. The study shows that 91% of organizations in Ireland now use AI in some form, nearly doubling from last year. With supportive policies, this economic contribution could increase by an additional €60 billion[5].
Wall Street Banks Warn of AI-Related Risks
Major financial institutions are highlighting new AI-related risks in their annual reports. JPMorgan representatives stated that AI might be the biggest challenge the bank is currently facing. Concerns include cybercriminals using AI for more sophisticated attacks and potential risks to data privacy from generative AI and remote work[6].
Cloud-Based AI for Fraud Prevention
Financial institutions and fintechs are increasingly adopting cloud-based AI workflows for fraud prevention. These systems leverage accelerated data processing, enhanced model training, and real-time model inference to detect and prevent fraudulent activities more effectively. Graph neural networks (GNNs) are emerging as a powerful tool for mapping complex relationships in transactional data, enabling more sophisticated fraud detection[7].
AI Update from the Past Week
Notable developments include the rise of the Chinese AI agent Manus, Salesforce’s launch of Agentforce 2dx for autonomous AI agents, Microsoft 365 Copilot’s addition of AI-driven sales agents, and Google’s expansion of AI Overviews with Gemini 2.0. Additionally, researchers have achieved 97% accuracy in detecting AI-generated text, potentially impacting content credibility assessments[4].
These advancements demonstrate the rapid evolution of AI across various sectors, from robotics and economics to finance and content creation, highlighting both the opportunities and challenges associated with AI integration.
Several significant developments have occurred in the crypto world this week:
Crypto Market Performance
The cryptocurrency market experienced a sharp 20.2% decline in February 2025, driven by weakening confidence in both traditional and crypto markets. This downturn was largely influenced by a historic US$1.5 billion hack on Bybit and a drop in memecoin activity. The hack, attributed to the Lazarus Group, was the largest security breach in crypto history.
Regulatory Changes
The Trump Administration has signaled a shift towards a more relaxed approach to cryptocurrency regulation. An Executive Order issued on January 23, 2025, directed federal agencies to rescind or modify regulatory positions on cryptocurrencies. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) published Interpretive Letter 1183, easing restrictions on crypto-asset activities for OCC-supervised financial institutions.
Strategic Bitcoin Reserve
President Trump signed an Executive Order on March 6, 2025, establishing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. This reserve will comprise bitcoin owned by the Treasury after final forfeiture through criminal or civil asset forfeiture proceedings. The order also directs other government agencies to review their authorities to transfer any bitcoin they own to the Reserve.
Stablecoin Legislation
Congress is working on stablecoin legislation, with the introduction of the GENIUS Act in the Senate and the STABLE Act in the House. These bills aim to authorize federal agencies to regulate stablecoin issuers.
Market Trends
Three main crypto narratives are currently in focus: Perpetuals, US-made coins, and meme coins. Perpetuals tokens like HYPE and WOO have seen recent declines but show potential for recovery. US-made coins such as PI, ADA, and HBAR have suffered losses due to market turmoil. Meme coins, despite being hit hard, are projected to potentially rebound if market sentiment turns positive.
These developments reflect the dynamic nature of the crypto market, with regulatory changes, market fluctuations, and emerging trends shaping the landscape in early 2025.
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